2/17 Five days went by?

I feel like I owe everyone an apology. I let FIVE days go by without forecasting. For what it's worth, I've been exhausted. No excuse, I know, now that a few of you have kicked down and paid me to do my job here.

We're having more weather problems, at least for skiers and snowboarders and telemarkers. An upper level low sits off the California coast and another weak low is chilling near the Washington coast. In between (that's us) is a weak ridge of high pressure. That's great if you like sunshine and above-average temperatures, but that's not so great if you love powder skiing. I love both, and can't decide which I prefer. As an employee of Meadows, I love powder (meaning rain at populated elevations), but as a human being, desperately seeking vitamin D, I love sunshine. Um... Meadows employees are human beings too... that came out badly, but I think it's funny so I'll leave it!

We're getting sunshine for the next couple of days. After that, we need to pray for falling temperatures to go with approaching precipitation predicted for Sunday onward.

Honestly, I'm not giving much credence to the long-range forecast. This is the Pacific Northwest, after all, and it's hard to predict very far out. Chaos theory explains a lot of this... small variations in the inputs for climatological models lead to large differences down the line, especially here, where there aren't zillions of inputs (thanks, Stu... =)). There's something quite appealing about chaos...

Anyway, I'm getting sidetracked. In the windsurfing and kiteboarding scene, we're looking at a mild east wind event this week. Thursday morning sees a very early upper twenties burst, followed by 22-26 for the rest of the morning, as the upper level low rotates off the coast. Friday looks similar. With overnight lows in the thirties and daytime highs near 50 (with sunshine!), this should be decent windsurfing and kiting conditions, if you can stand the sub-40 degree water.

I'll be on the mountain. Speaking of, if you're a telemark skier and missed the clinic last Sunday, you missed out on both some excellent instruction and some excellent brownies.

Print | posted @ Tuesday, February 17, 2009 7:19 PM

Comments on this entry:

Gravatar # re: 2/17 Five days went by?
by Larry at 2/18/2009 12:32 PM

Apology accepted. I've heard some talk amongst the paying customers that it sure would be nice if you could do several forecasts a day, oh maybe every 3 hours or so initially, increasing in frequency until they are virtually continuous. This shouldn't be a problem if you slowly work up to it :)

Regarding chaos theory, that is indeed a fascinating field, and certainly relevant to weather models and longer term forecasting. IMHO, chaos and the difficulty of ever getting enough inputs are the main reasons why forecasts further than a week out often dissolve into, well, chaos. The Butterfly Effect...

And how about those Strange Attractors, one of the cooler named things that can arise from chaotic motion...

Your comment:

Title:
Name:
Email:
Website:
 
Italic Underline Blockquote Hyperlink
 
 
Please add 6 and 5 and type the answer here:
 

Please help me offset the cost of this service by donating via Paypal. Thank you!